《世界能源展望》是全球能源領(lǐng)域最權(quán)威的分析和預(yù)測(cè)的重要來(lái)源。這份由國(guó)際能源署（iea）出版的旗艦出版物，自 1998 年以來(lái)每年更新出版，其客觀的數(shù)據(jù)和冷靜的分析，為不同情景下的全球能源供需以及對(duì)能源安全、氣候目標(biāo)和經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的影響提供了重要的見(jiàn)解。

 

 

《2021年世界能源展望》報(bào)告認(rèn)為，加快電氣化、提高能效、減少甲烷排放以及推動(dòng)清潔能源創(chuàng)新，將有助于將全球溫升控制在1.5℃以內(nèi)。大力推進(jìn)能源終端用能的清潔電氣化。熱泵是建筑行業(yè)最大的電氣化機(jī)會(huì)，取代了化石燃料鍋爐的供暖。清潔能源轉(zhuǎn)型需注重以人為本，能源轉(zhuǎn)型還需全社會(huì)的支持與參與。如公眾支持改用電動(dòng)汽車(chē)或熱泵，行為方式的改變將貢獻(xiàn)4%左右的碳減排量。

 

在“所有區(qū)域可持續(xù)發(fā)展情景假設(shè)”中的“建筑業(yè)政策”，明確增加對(duì)現(xiàn)有建筑物能效和二氧化碳減排措施的支持，包括在一些國(guó)家進(jìn)行改造、熱泵、直接使用太陽(yáng)能和地?zé)崮堋Ｔ凇八袇^(qū)域2050年凈零排放假設(shè)”中，明確到2045年，熱泵將滿足50%的供熱需求。

 

表1 所有區(qū)域：可持續(xù)發(fā)展情景假設(shè)

 

 

表2 所有區(qū)域：2050年凈零排放假設(shè)

 

 

原文節(jié)選如下：
原文：heat pumps are the largest electrification opportunity in the buildings sector, displacing heating from fossil fuel boilers. although electric heat pumps are an increasingly attractive option, gas-fired boilers remain the dominant form of space heating in the steps and in many countries in the aps. ensuring that new buildings meet zero-carbon-ready standards, and providing incentives for householders to install heat pumps when existing heating options breakdown or need to be replaced, both help to close the gap between the aps and the nze.electrification is also increasingly used in the nze to provide low-temperature heat in industry.

 

譯文：熱泵是建筑行業(yè)最大的電氣化機(jī)會(huì)，取代了化石燃料鍋爐的供暖。盡管電動(dòng)熱泵是一種越來(lái)越有吸引力的選擇，但燃?xì)忮仩t仍然是steps和aps許多國(guó)家的主要空間供暖形式。確保新建筑符合零碳標(biāo)準(zhǔn)，并鼓勵(lì)住戶在現(xiàn)有供暖方案出現(xiàn)故障或需要更換時(shí)安裝熱泵，這兩方面都有助于縮小aps和nze之間的差距。nze也越來(lái)越多地使用電氣化在工業(yè)中提供低溫供熱。
（注：steps為既定政策情景，aps為承諾目標(biāo)情景，sds為可持續(xù)發(fā)展情景，nze為凈零排放情景。）

 

原文：far-reaching energy transitions require support and engagement across society. a number of changes depend on broad social acceptance. in the nze, at least half of emissions reductions over the next decade require some kind of consumer buy-in, e.g. a decision to switch to an ev or a heat pump. around 4% of emissions reductions require behavioural changes, e.g. cycling rather than driving to work.

 

譯文：深遠(yuǎn)的能源轉(zhuǎn)型需要全社會(huì)的支持和參與。許多變化取決于社會(huì)的廣泛接受。在新西蘭經(jīng)濟(jì)區(qū)，未來(lái)十年至少有一半的減排需要某種消費(fèi)者的認(rèn)可，例如，決定改用電動(dòng)汽車(chē)或熱泵。約4%的減排需要改變行為，例如騎自行車(chē)而不是開(kāi)車(chē)上班。

 

原文：energy efficiency is the key to tempering demand growth and unlocking these multiple benefits. current and announced policies would only lead to annual efficiency improvements of 2%, but pushing efficiency towards its full economic potential– including through switching to heat pumps for low‐temperature process heat needs –could increase the rate of improvement to 3%.

 

譯文：能源效率是緩和需求增長(zhǎng)和釋放這些多重效益的關(guān)鍵。當(dāng)前和宣布的政策只能使年效率提高2%，但將效率推向其全部經(jīng)濟(jì)潛力——包括通過(guò)切換熱泵滿足低溫工藝熱需求——可以將提高率提高到3%。

 

原文：reducing space heating emissions in line with the eu climate objectives also depends on a switch to low‐carbon heating technologies such as heat pumps or renewables together with the use of building‐related digital and connected technologies for energy management and of more efficient appliances.

 

譯文：根據(jù)歐盟氣候目標(biāo)減少空間供熱排放還取決于轉(zhuǎn)向低碳供熱技術(shù)，如熱泵或可再生能源，以及使用與建筑相關(guān)的數(shù)字和連接技術(shù)進(jìn)行能源管理和使用更高效的電器。

 

原文：in buildings, electric heat pumps offerthe biggest opportunity for displacing fossil fuel boilers for heating. electric heat pumps are an increasingly attractive technology to meet heating needs in buildings, and installations in the steps rise from the current 1.5 million per month to around 3 million by 2030, leading sales for new construction in many regions. in the aps,heat pump installations reach 3.5 million per month by 2030, while in the nze they reach 5 million a month.

 

譯文：在建筑物中，電熱泵提供了取代化石燃料鍋爐取暖的最大機(jī)會(huì)。電熱泵是一種越來(lái)越有吸引力的技術(shù)，可以滿足建筑物的供暖需求，到2030年，電熱泵的安裝量將從目前的每月150萬(wàn)臺(tái)增加到300萬(wàn)臺(tái)左右，在許多地區(qū)引領(lǐng)新建筑的銷(xiāo)售。到2030年，aps地區(qū)的熱泵安裝量達(dá)到每月350萬(wàn)臺(tái)，而nze地區(qū)的熱泵安裝量達(dá)到每月500萬(wàn)臺(tái)。

 

原文：thanks to significant cost declines in the last decade, heat pumps are becoming more and more competitive as the technology and market mature. they are especially attractive for the one‐third of the global population living in regions requiring both space heating and cooling, since reversible heat pumps are able to deliver both services (iea, 2020a). however,non‐economic barriers commonly hinder customer adoption. for example, heating equipment is usually only replaced when the existing equipment fails, and switching to a different kind of heating system may take time and involve substantial extra work. this is compounded by split incentives in rental properties: the savings from lower utility bills often accrue to renters, while building owners pay the higher upfront costs. some governments have created financing programmes to overcome these upfront cost barriers or have introduced bans on new fossil fuel boilers.

 

譯文：由于過(guò)去十年的成本大幅下降，隨著技術(shù)和市場(chǎng)的成熟，熱泵的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力越來(lái)越強(qiáng)。由于可逆式熱泵能夠提供這兩種服務(wù)，因此它們對(duì)生活在需要空間供暖和制冷的地區(qū)的全球三分之一人口特別有吸引力（iea，2020a）。然而，非經(jīng)濟(jì)障礙通常會(huì)阻礙客戶采用。例如，加熱設(shè)備通常僅在現(xiàn)有設(shè)備出現(xiàn)故障時(shí)更換，切換到不同類(lèi)型的加熱系統(tǒng)可能需要時(shí)間，并涉及大量額外工作。租賃物業(yè)的分割激勵(lì)使這一點(diǎn)更加復(fù)雜：較低的公用事業(yè)費(fèi)用節(jié)省下來(lái)的費(fèi)用通常會(huì)累積到租客身上，而建筑業(yè)主則支付較高的預(yù)付成本。一些國(guó)家政府制定了融資計(jì)劃，以克服這些前期成本障礙，或?qū)π碌幕剂襄仩t實(shí)行禁令。

 

原文：in buildings, changes in natural gas demand are closely correlated with the pace and scale of building retrofit rates and of the roll-out of heat pumps, especially in regions where gas plays a seasonal role in heating. in the steps, natural gas remains the default option for space heating, the building retrofit rate is less than 1% per year and around 3 million heat pumps are installed every month in buildings around the world in 2030 (compared with 1.5 million today). in the aps, countries with net zero pledges accelerate ambition in both areas, leading to a retrofit rate of around 1.5% per year globally and the installation of 3.5 million heat pumps every month in 2030. the implementation gap between steps and aps is closed through measures such as bans on the sale of new gas-fired boilers (except where they are compatible with low-carbon gases) and the introduction of strict performance standards for existing and new buildings together with incentives for retrofits. in the nze, the global rate of retrofits increases to 2.5% per year and around 5 million heat pumps are installed every month in 2030. natural gas demand in buildings, which is around 850 bcm today, grows by 70 bcm in the steps to 2030, falls by 30 bcm in the aps, and falls by 300 bcm in the nze.

 

譯文：在建筑物中，天然氣需求的變化與建筑物改造率和熱泵推廣的速度和規(guī)模密切相關(guān)，尤其是在天然氣在供暖中起季節(jié)性作用的地區(qū)。在這些步驟中，天然氣仍然是空間供暖的默認(rèn)選項(xiàng)，建筑改造率每年不到1%，2030年全世界建筑每月安裝約300萬(wàn)臺(tái)熱泵（相比之下，目前為150萬(wàn)臺(tái)）。在aps中，凈零承諾的國(guó)家加快了這兩個(gè)領(lǐng)域的雄心壯志，導(dǎo)致全球每年約1.5%的改造率，并在2030年每月安裝350萬(wàn)臺(tái)熱泵。steps和aps之間的實(shí)施差距通過(guò)禁止銷(xiāo)售新的燃?xì)忮仩t（與低碳?xì)怏w兼容的除外）以及為現(xiàn)有和新建筑引入嚴(yán)格的性能標(biāo)準(zhǔn)以及鼓勵(lì)改造等措施來(lái)彌補(bǔ)。在新西蘭，全球每年的改造率增加到2.5%，到2030年，每月安裝約500萬(wàn)臺(tái)熱泵。建筑中的天然氣需求目前約為850 bcm，到2030年將增長(zhǎng)70 bcm，aps下降30 bcm，nze下降300 bcm。